Enter any federal contract number (PIID) to see its vulnerability score and displacement risk on the next re-compete. Built on 23M+ federal award records.
Try one of these example PIIDs:
A vulnerability scoreis a 0-100 estimate of how likely the current incumbent contractor is to lose their work when the contract comes up for re-compete. Higher scores mean weaker incumbent positions and stronger opportunities for challengers. The score is computed from public procurement data on USAspending.gov — no insider information, no proprietary signals, just the structural characteristics that historically correlate with incumbent displacement.
Pursight publishes vulnerability scores for every federal contract above $100K. The risk-check tool above gives you instant access to those scores for any contract you can identify by PIID (Procurement Instrument Identifier).
Short-term extensions signal agency dissatisfaction. The strongest single predictor of displacement in our backtest.
Contracts won with 1 offer score lower (entrenched incumbent). Contracts with 4+ offers score higher (genuinely competitive market).
Long-quiet contracts face increasing pressure for fresh evaluation. Quintupling at the 5-year mark.
Contracts ending within 30 days score highest — the urgency factor. Decreases as the end date moves further out.
Larger contracts attract more challengers. >$10M scores +8, >$1M scores +4, <$100K scores +1.
Full-and-open competition (+5) means the agency is willing to evaluate new bidders. Sole-source awards score 0.
Incumbent appears well-positioned. Strong factors include single-bid award, recent action, full option years remaining, no bridge history.
Worth monitoring. Some structural pressure on the incumbent — could come from competition history, time since last action, or approaching end-date.
Strong displacement opportunity. Multiple structural factors aligned. Worth pursuing if your firm has relevant past performance.
The most vulnerable contracts in the dataset. Bridge contracts, low original competition, and imminent end-dates compound.
A vulnerability score of 50 does notmean a 50% chance of incumbent displacement. Scores are relative within our dataset — they identify which contracts most strongly exhibit the structural patterns associated with incumbent turnover. Most incumbents retain their work even on high-vulnerability contracts.
Use the score as a prioritization signal in your capture pipeline, not as a crystal ball. Want to see how displacement actually plays out in the data? Our research on segmented displacement rates decomposes 27,004 matched re-compete pairs into structural vs. competitive losses.
A Procurement Instrument Identifier is the unique number assigned to every federal contract by the awarding agency. It usually appears on solicitations, awards, and SAM.gov listings. Examples: W911NF20C0001 (Army), 75D30122C15802 (HHS), GS35F0218X (GSA Schedule).
USAspending.gov — the federal government's official record of contract obligations. Updated daily. We supplement with structural signals (bridge detection, set-aside rotation history) computed nightly.
No. Classified contracts are not published on USAspending.gov and aren't in our dataset. The risk-check tool only works for unclassified contracts with a public PIID.
Yes. Time-until-expiration is one of the six scoring factors, so the same contract will score progressively higher as it gets closer to its end date. Scores recompute nightly.
Three common reasons: (1) the PIID format may differ from how it's stored in USAspending; try both with and without dashes. (2) Very small contracts (under $100K) may not be in our scored set. (3) Recently-awarded contracts can take 30-60 days to propagate from agency systems to USAspending.